Contextual summary & nuances for Oct 24th: Dip into the secular Bull uptrend that gets bought
D- OTFD, W- OTFD, M- OTFD
Contextual Summary: In the overall scheme: Sellers are in full control of the auction with all 3TFs OTFD. International context seems to have investors in cash. Todays SCR, does it have more legs? Or the market just got too short?
The last four days after the look above and fail have been vicious, with sellers cleaning up the weak lows left in the previous move down bottom. All three values were left 150p+ higher.
ON trading showed weakness and sometime before the open the PA got to a NVPOC coinciding in the zone with the secular uptrend (Covid lows-2022lows). The context favored a SCR as many sellers were shorting pretty out of position. In the area where it was expected (near the ARHi from PD) sellers emerged, starting a downtrend that ended the day near the PDLOD. In this process though, sellers brought the STvalue down to 66 (and the MT value is about to drop there too if a pass thru there happens.
Value grew overlapping, leaving a P-shape with some degree of extension profile (was there new money buying? Was it just SCR?
>>They want to keep control of the auction and take the excess low (buying tail) to continue their expedition to the depths of the earth. They want to keep the auction under 4266-68.
>>Buyers wanted to stop the pattern of lower lows and lower highs (cessate OTFD) to favor some two-sided trading to allow some basing. They finished the day near the low of the previous day and near the lows of the previous swing low. They want to pull a look below and fail, but it may be early to tell if they can. First they need to gain acceptance within the range (above 4250). If they can pull it off, the first stop of the up move (multiday move?) it would be the resistance known at 4336.
Specifics: In the immediate term I will be watching these references: the area of the range low also LVN (4250-4255) and the afternoon rally high from Friday at 84.75. To the bottom side there is the VPOC at 4240 and an HVN at 4230 that buyers would like to retain along with their buying tail.
Today’s high is poorish, with barely any excess. We carry that forward
MSFT and GOGGLE report tomorrow.
